The model comes first
Probabilities. With context.
SportIQ combines trained team models with available pregame sportsbook probabilities to estimate MLB and NFL win chances. Explore the inputs, evaluation, and limits before making your call.
MLB
Inside the MLB model
A trained logistic model combines team form, scoring, and Elo strength. Probable starters adjust the model estimate; available pregame sportsbook odds anchor the served probability. Game Brain runs separately as an experimental explanation layer.
Methodology & performanceNFL
Inside the NFL model
A trained model artifact scores team features built from completed games. When a pregame line is available, the served estimate blends 25% model and 75% market in logit space. Without one, the model stands alone.
Methodology & performanceWhat a prediction means
A 64% probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Historical accuracy, Brier score, and log loss provide different views of performance where reported. Pregame snapshots stay fixed so later events cannot rewrite the original prediction. Your personal stats compare SportIQ’s saved call with your own selection on the same graded games.